Retirement Calculator

Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 trials

Portfolio & Withdrawals

$1,000,000
4.0%
30
2.5%

Asset Allocation

60%
Customize stock mix
25%
Customize bond mix
10%
Customize private mix
5%
Stocks Bonds Privates Cash
Total Allocation 100%

Factor Tilts (Fama-French 5)

0%
Equity risk premium over risk-free. +100% = full beta, -100% = fully hedged.
0%
Small minus big. Positive = tilt toward small caps for higher expected return + volatility.
0%
High minus low book-to-market. Positive = tilt toward value stocks.
0%
Robust minus weak operating profitability. Positive = tilt toward profitable firms.
0%
Conservative minus aggressive investment. Positive = tilt toward low-investment firms.
Net Factor Impact on Stocks
Return adjustment+0.0%
Volatility adjustment+0.0%

Factor tilts modify the stock allocation's return and volatility assumptions. Based on long-run Fama-French factor premia estimates. 0% = no tilt (market portfolio). Applies proportionally to your stock allocation weight.

Return Assumptions

Asset ClassMean ReturnVolatility
Customize return assumptions

Simulation Results

Success Rate
of 1,000 trials
Median End Balance
real dollars
Annual Withdrawal
year 1 (nominal)

Scenario Analysis

PercentileEnd BalanceWorst YearRan Out?