Retirement Calculator

Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 trials

Portfolio & Withdrawals

$1,000,000
4.0%
30
2.5%

Asset Allocation

60%
▶ Customize stock mix
25%
▶ Customize bond mix
10%
▶ Customize private mix
5%
Stocks Bonds Privates Cash
Total Allocation 100%

Factor Tilts (Fama-French 5)

0%
Equity risk premium over risk-free. +100% = full beta, -100% = fully hedged.
0%
Small minus big. Positive = tilt toward small caps for higher expected return + volatility.
0%
High minus low book-to-market. Positive = tilt toward value stocks.
0%
Robust minus weak operating profitability. Positive = tilt toward profitable firms.
0%
Conservative minus aggressive investment. Positive = tilt toward low-investment firms.
Net Factor Impact on Stocks
Return adjustment+0.0%
Volatility adjustment+0.0%

Factor tilts modify the stock allocation's return and volatility assumptions. Based on long-run Fama-French factor premia estimates. 0% = no tilt (market portfolio). Applies proportionally to your stock allocation weight.

Return Assumptions

Asset ClassMean ReturnVolatility
▶ Customize return assumptions

Simulation Results

Success Rate
—
of 1,000 trials
Median End Balance
—
real dollars
Annual Withdrawal
—
year 1 (nominal)

Scenario Analysis

PercentileEnd BalanceWorst YearRan Out?